Will Scotland at last end the long-standing losing streak?
International Rugby Series: Scotland v New Zealand
Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital Date: Saturday, 8 November Time: 15:10 GMT
Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.
Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.
A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."
Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.
A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.
Modern Encounters
Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.
During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.
Team News
In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.
Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they get the job done.
As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.
Missing Players
Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.
Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.
During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.
Squad Depth
They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.
Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.
Strategic Decisions
Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.
The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.
Past Encounters
Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.
That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.
Statistical Analysis
For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.
Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.
Required Performance
Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.
The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.
In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks.
Conclusion
Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.
With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.
Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.